Number of COVID-19 Deaths in India Close to 2 Million
Scientists have calculated that Covid-19 deaths in the country are approaching 2 million and said that the inconsistency in the country’s case-death records delays understanding the characteristics of the variant.
Scientists warned that India’s death toll from Covid-19 could be close to 2 million. Researchers at the University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation said India was only able to detect 3 to 5 percent of cases due to insufficient testing.
Murad Banaji, the mathematician at Middlesex University behind the study, estimates that the actual death toll in the country could be about five times the reported figure. Banaji told the Wall Street Journal that he used data from serology tests that showed the presence of antibodies in the population to create his model.
CONNECTS WITH PREVIOUS STUDIES
However, Banaji’s work supports research by the New York Times last month, which says the true death toll in India could be closer to 1.6 million.
Speaking to more than a dozen experts, the Times found it difficult to get a clear picture of the total number of infections in India due to poor record keeping and widespread testing.
INSUFFICIENT TESTS, NO ACCESS TO HEALTH FACILITIES IN SOME REGIONS
The scientists said the undercount could be due to inadequate testing, overcrowding of hospitals, and lack of access to healthcare in rural areas of the country. This could mean that many deaths from coronavirus, particularly in rural areas, occur at home and are therefore excluded from the count.
FOUR OF EVERY FIVE DEATHS ARE NOT INVESTIGATION
Other researchers have found that doctors across the country are reluctant to tell families that their loved ones have died with the virus.
Dr. Banaji also stressed that the death registration system in India is unreliable, with four out of five deaths not investigating the cause of death. “Death registries in India vary quite widely in urban and rural areas,” Banaji said.
On the other hand, in India with a population of 1.4 billion, 396 thousand deaths and more than 10 million cases due to Covid-19 have been recorded so far. The country is also struggling with the Delta variant, which has caused a spike in cases around the world. Undercounting cases and deaths could affect a better understanding of the Delta variant, said Christopher Murray, director of the University of Washington Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation.
A report by the World Health Organization last month estimated that the global death rate could be two or three times higher than reported.
